The crowded field of Republicans vying for the Senate race narrowed significantly when Kari Lake, who gained national attention with her 2022 Arizona gubernatorial run and association with Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement, announced her candidacy. Lake's entry into the race pushed other contenders aside.
Lake secured a decisive victory over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who had touted himself as the more electable choice for securing the border. However, Lamb struggled with fundraising, amassing only $2 million by the end of June, compared to Lake’s $10.3 million.
Lake is now competing against Rep. Ruben Gallego to fill the Senate seat vacated by Kyrsten Sinema. Sinema, initially elected as a Democrat in 2018, left the party to become an independent after losing support from the Democratic base. Though she considered running for re-election as an independent, she ultimately decided against it.
A former Phoenix Fox News anchor, Lake rapidly emerged as a prominent figure on the right, appealing to grassroots Republicans with her sharp critiques of the media, strong stance on border security, and steadfast support for Trump. At one point, Trump even considered her as a potential running mate.
During a telephone rally with Lake, Trump urged his supporters to vote, praising her as “fantastic” and asserting that “there’s nobody going to be better” than Lake.
Lake had previously beaten an establishment-backed Republican in the 2022 gubernatorial primary but narrowly lost the general election. Her campaign at that time failed to shift toward the center or unify Republicans behind her.
In her Senate campaign, Lake has made efforts to appeal to a broader audience, inviting those who did not vote for her to join her cause. She has reached out to "traditional Republicans" with messages of unity but continues to frame the general election as a stark choice between "good and evil," portraying Gallego as an “extreme liberal Democrat from Chicago” aligned with President Biden and Vice President Harris.
Since launching her Senate bid, Lake has attempted to moderate some of her more controversial positions, though inconsistently. She initially disavowed a near-total abortion ban she had previously supported but later spoke in favor of it again. She has occasionally distanced herself from false claims of election fraud, though she continues to challenge her 2022 gubernatorial loss, recently filing a request for the Arizona Supreme Court to review the case, despite previous rejections by the justices.
In Maricopa County, Republicans had their first opportunity to vote out officials who did not support Trump’s and Lake’s claims of a rigged 2020 and 2022 election. State legislator Justin Heap, endorsed by Lake, unseated incumbent Recorder Stephen Richer, who had defended election integrity. The county board of supervisors races were mixed, with both establishment and Trump-aligned candidates winning in different districts.
The belief that elections are rigged remains strong among some Arizona Republicans, despite repeated rejections of fraud claims by judges, election experts, and Trump's own attorney general.
Barb Schwisow, a retired nurse, reflected the sentiment of many Republicans, discussing concerns about election integrity while distributing GOP pamphlets in Sun City West, a retirement community near Phoenix.
In the race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Debbie Lesko, candidates include Blake Masters and Abraham Hamadeh, former allies who have since turned against each other, along with a state lawmaker indicted for involvement in Trump’s fake-elector scheme and former Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned in 2017 amid allegations of sexual harassment. This race remains too early to call.
On the Democratic side, two competitive U.S. House primaries in the Phoenix area also remain undecided. The winner in the 1st Congressional District will challenge Republican Rep. David Schweikert for an affluent Scottsdale-centered seat. In the 3rd District, a safe Democratic seat with a significant Latino community, two Democrats are vying for the nomination. The eventual Democratic nominee is expected to have a strong chance in the November election to replace Gallego.
